World carbon emissions are set to rise 2 percent this year to a new record, scientists said on Monday, dashing hopes that global emissions had already peaked.
The Global Carbon Project's report appears in the November 13 Environmental Research Letters with detailed data published simultaneously in an Earth System Science Data Discussionspaper led by Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, who is also part of the Global Carbon Project. "If 2018 is as big is 2017, then I will be very discouraged", she says.
China's emissions contributes almost a third of the world's total emissions, and was a key factor in the rise.
Global Carbon Project (GCP) executive director and report co-author Dr Pep Canadell said the increase is likely to be about 2 per cent on 2016 levels.
But the picture is much different in China, which produces almost 26% of the world's output of CO2.
"The only way we are going to see these emission numbers go in the right direction is if the politicians spend less time talking about their Paris pledges and more time actually meeting them", Christian Aid's global climate lead Mohamed Adow warned. When emissions flatlined for three years, it was the result of the country's reduced economic growth.
The effort highlights nagging uncertainties about greenhouse-gas emissions trends, particularly in China, India and other countries with economies that are rapidly growing and changing, says David Victor, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
Australia has committed to reducing emissions to 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
This year 'might well prove a small blip on an otherwise flattening emissions curve, ' he said. The budget, which refers to the amount of carbon we can release into the atmosphere before we exceed climate change targets, has been determined by the Global Carbon Project. "We can't be complacent".
"This is basically saying that we are not safe yet", Peters says.
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