Opec predicts massive rise in oil production over next five years

Trump's Blow to Iranian Oil Sparks Curious Price Divergence

Shares of Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd and Petronas Gas Bhd (PetGas) rose today as crude oil prices advanced with the deadline for United States sanctions on Iranian oil drawing nearer.

J.P. Morgan says US sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million bpd, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

"We're on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequade supply response for a 2 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets", Jaeggi said.

However, the word from traders and refiners at the industry's annual gathering in Singapore this week is that the market starting to look short of necessary barrels, and prices are likely to head higher.

At 1108 GMT, November WTI Crude Oil futures are trading $71.93, up $1.13 or +1.56% and December Brent Crude Oil futures are trading $79.98, up $1.74 or +2.22%. But Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday such a move was not needed at the moment.

A committee comprised of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and non-OPEC producers said it was satisfied with the current market outlook, which represented "an overall healthy balance between supply and demand". The last time prices were sustained at that level was 2014.

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OPEC, along with a group of Russia-led producers, put a cap on output in January 2017 in response to a supply glut and a sustained rout in oil prices that bankrupted USA energy firms and escalated unrest in exporting countries. He sees US$90 oil by Christmas and US$100 in early 2019.

The U.S. shale oil boom has dramatically reshaped the energy landscape turning the country into a major oil producer - on track, in fact, to be the largest producer this year according to the Energy Information Administration.

On Sept. 20, Trump sent a tweet demanding OPEC produce more to get oil prices down and goose the US economy.

Sunday's meeting appeared to leave unresolved a disagreement which flared up in June between Saudi Arabia and Iran over whether OPEC members are allowed to pump more oil to make up shortfalls elsewhere.

Sales of Iranian crude have fallen as buyers remain wary of penalties from sanctions due to take effect from November.

"We believe that Saturday's terrorist attack in Iran could prove to be the weekend's more consequential event as it will likely exacerbate the already unsafe Middle East antagonisms", Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said Sunday.


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