Investors underestimate risk of financial shock, IFM warns

US / China trade war and Brexit threaten global growth says IMF

Minister for Finance, Asad Umar on Wednesday held a number of meetings on the sidelines of the World Bank, IMF Group Annual meetings in Bali, Indonesia and discussed matters of mutual interests. But the fund lowered China's economic outlook for 2019 to 6.2 per cent, which would be the country's slowest growth since 1990.

The financial market volatility will likely continue next year, because the US Federal Reserve, after raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its September 26 meeting, nonetheless signaled another rate hike by the end of this year and maintained its projection for three rate hikes in 2019.

The IMF said it was now predicting 3.7 percent global growth in both 2018 and 2019.

The outlook for world trade overall also darkened: The fund expects global trade to grow 4.2 percent this year, down from 5.2 percent in 2017 and from the 4.8 percent it expected in July. "In Angola, inflation is projected to fall to 20.5 per cent in 2018 from 29.8 per cent in 2017, and to decline further to 15.8 per cent in 2019", it added.

The IMF said the balance of risks was now tilted to the downside, with a higher likelihood that financial conditions will tighten further as interest rates normalise, hurting emerging markets further at a time when US-led demand growth will start to slow as some tax cuts expire. The IMF has lowered the growth projections for both India and China by 0.4 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively, from its annual April's WEO.

They show that a burst of strong growth, fueled partly by United States tax cuts and rising demand for imports, was starting to wane.

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The US simultaneously threatened to add tariffs to a further $267 billion (£205 billion) of products, which saw China retaliate with 10 percent tariffs on $60 billion (£46 billion) of US imports. Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 0.4 per cent to 7,201.

Obstfeld applauded the government's pledges to push structural reforms to address its economic and financial issues, saying the Fund still views Pakistan with "immense potential" in growth.

"It was a combination of factors that basically affected emerging and frontier markets".

After a visit last week, the International Monetary Fund said Pakistan was facing significant economic challenges, with diminishing growth, high budget and current-account deficits, and low foreign-exchange reserves.

The IMF said the RRR cut, together with other easing and stimulus policies, "may help support economic growth in the near term in the face of rising external pressures.(but) may entail greater risks to financial stability over the medium term should they set back progress toward reducing financial vulnerabilities".

"Nonetheless, despite trade tensions and continued monetary policy normalisation in a few advanced economies, global financial markets have remained buoyant and appear complacent about the risk of a sudden, sharp tightening in financial conditions".

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