NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, says their forecast calls for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for both the Lower and Upper Peninsula.

But North and SC, along with much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley, "all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures", NOAA said.

In the winter, the NOAA said, typical El Nino conditions include wetter-than-average precipitation in the southern US and drier conditions in parts of the northern U.S.

Around 75 percent of the United States is more likely to be warmer than average, and no part of the favored to see below-average temperatures for the winter, NOAA added. "During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the US can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North", according to NOAA.

Winter weather expert Judah Cohen, of the private company Atmospheric and Environmental Research, uses different indicators to predict winter for the National Science Foundation.

Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western USA, with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

The El Nino year is not expected to be as strong as the 2015-16 event that brought significant snowfall.

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Kentucky has equal chances for both above and below average temperatures according to NOAA's outlook. The WYMT Weather team will have their 2018-2019 Winter Outlook for Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, November 20th. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation during the winter, the NOAA said.

Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.

Drought conditions may worsen in much of Southern and Central California, although the north coast of California may see some relief, according to NOAA.

NOAA's seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.

Farmer's Almanac Editor Peter Geiger said in late August his publication predicts "a very long, cold and snow-filled winter".

The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center posts its three-month outlook once a month.

"Even on a warming planet", he said, "it doesn't mean winter goes away and it's never cold again".



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