As 2nd-largest carbon spewer from power: IEA

International Energy Agency sees crunch on oil consumption

The new investments, the authority explained, would have to go into new conventional production. "There is a real prospect of damaging price spikes and increased price volatility". It's great that the IEA now see wind being the no. 1 source of electricity in Europe in less than 10 years.

The stark note comes within the IEA's World Energy Outlook (WEO), the body's annual analysis of global energy trends, this year's edition of which was released earlier today (13 November).

It will be mostly replaced by a combination of new wind and solar projects.

Global electricity demand will grow 2.1% a year, mostly driven by rising use in developing economies. The share of coal is forecast to fall from about 40% today to a quarter in 2040 while renewables would grow to just over 40% from a quarter now.

India and Southeast Asia combined are the growth centers for coal-fired power, with demand more than doubling over the period to 2040, the IEA said.

The agency's demand forecast to 2040 is based on the assumptions of rising incomes, an extra 1.7 billion people in the world - majority in urban areas in developing economies - and a "new policies scenario" in which current efficiency and carbon reduction targets are enacted.

The report said that the global energy market will undergo major transformations ranging from growing electrification to the expansion of renewables, upheavals in oil production and globalisation of natural gas markets.

The World Bank Group said at the One Planet Summit in Paris in December that it would cease to finance upstream oil and gas projects after 2019 "to align its support to countries to meet their Paris goals".

On the supply side, the USA is forecast by the IEA to provide almost 75% of the increase in global oil production to 2025, with tight oil production reaching 9.2 mb/d in the mid-2020s before declining slowly.

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OPEC and rival producers such as Russian Federation, have floated the possibility of cutting oil production next year to prevent an unwelcome build-up in global inventories, even as Iran now faces United States sanctions on its exports.

"The question we are asking is: can the USA, and United States shale in particular step up?"

"Crafting the right policies and proper incentives will be critical to meeting our common goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centres, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and elsewhere", he said.

A report by the United States -US-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of potential upheavals in the global crude oil market between this year and 2020.

Oil demand is expected to increase to 106 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2040, 11 mbd more than today, according to the IEA's flagship publication World Energy Outlook 2018.

Although China is the world's third-biggest user of natural gas behind the United States and Russian Federation, it has to import about 40 percent of its needs as local production can not keep pace. The IEA says emerging Asia would account for about half of total global gas demand growth and their share of LNG imports would double to 60% by 2040.

Australia is well placed for that demand being so close to the region and especially the likes of China, India, Japan and Indonesia.

However, the report notes that most emissions related to energy infrastructure are "essentially locked-in", with relatively young coal-fired power plants in Asia set to contribute to global Carbon dioxide emissions for decades to come.

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