Hurricane center says tropical depression likely in Gulf

Tropical system expected to slowly develop midweek in northern Gulf of Mexico

NOAA's National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 8 p.m. Now this system is located over south-central Georgia, meaning it is over land and has no chance of developing yet!

The National Hurricane Center has a high 80 percent chance for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

High tides and strong winds also threaten southeast Louisiana or coastal MS, especially if the system develops quickly and gains strength, the National Weather Service's New Orleans office said.

A tropical depression is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Even after it moves onshore the system looks to hold together creating the chance for heavy storms to linger into Sunday afternoon. If it manages to form farther south in the Gulf, for example, it would likely spend more time over water, grow a bit stronger and travel farther to the west. This activity will be primarily driven by daytime heating and diminish after sunset.

An area of low pressure over Middle GA right now is poised to move south over warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico. "Coastal areas from the western Florida to the upper-Texas coast will see 4-10" of rain (see Fig. 4) this week; inland areas of Alabama, Mississippi, Texas & Louisiana will also see heavy rain. But for now, it's too early for specifics in the forecast - which currently encompasses a wide swath.

If maximum sustained winds strengthen to 39 to 73 miles per hour, the system becomes a tropical storm. None of the forecast models are calling for more than a tropical storm at landfall. "The main hazard will be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding". Confidence in this weekend's forecast is lower than normal, and will remain so until we are very confident in the track of this potential tropical system. A tropical storm forms, on average, two out of every three years in July across the Atlantic basin.


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